Changes in the structure of world trade in agri-food products: evidence from gravity modelling in a long term perspective, 1950-2000

This study examines the reasons for changes in the composition of international trade in agricultural and food products. We use a Gravity Model to compare the impact of the key factors in bilateral agri-food trade, which we split into three main product groups, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. Our results show how intervention and/or protectionism, the level of participation in intra-industrial trade and the effects of national and per capita income growth have determined the rise in high value-added products and processed goods and the declining share of traditional, basic commodities.