Chapter 10 Analysis of the Causes of Trade War Between the US and China and its Impact on Selected Asian Countries

Of late, the issue which has attracted the highest attention in the global scenario is the US–China trade relation, in particular the tariff war. The biggest nations in the world are in war with each other in matters related to trade since 2018. In the first quarter, the United States imposed a tariff which affected many countries like Canada, the EU, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and, in developing Asia, India and the People’s Republic of China. This has resulted in a significant dampening of global output growth and growth in emerging nations of Asia. The present chapter seeks to investigate into the historical evidences of trade wars between the United States and China, major reasons responsible for this conflict and tries to figure out the impact of this conflict on fundamental macro variables using secondary time-series data primarily on selected Asian economies including India. The author uses the multiple regression technique to find to what extent changes in the independent variables are responsible in explaining the changes in the dependent variable for both China and the United States. The empirical results clearly show that in the case of China and the United States, an increase in weighted tariff rates (WTR) will lead to a significant decrease in the trade GDP ratio (TGR), whereas in the case of both these countries, Purchasing Power Parity GNI (PPPGNI) is positively and significantly associated in determining TGR. In the case of India, a decrease in WTR is expected to lead to a rise in TGR and it is significant. In case of Vietnam, PPPGNI is significant, but not WTR. In the case of Singapore, neither of the two independent variables is significant.