China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forests Program: development framework, economic impacts and future challenges -Based on 10 years’ monitoring results of 100 sample counties around China

This paper uses a 10 years monitoring data set of 100 counties to examine the process,implementation and impacts of China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forests Program (CCFP). Atheoretical framework was constructed to explain the development of CCFG. We find that CCFGwas originate from economic growth and will fulfill its goal by economic growth as it closelylinked with rural poverty; Constrains such as income decline will finally be solved along withpolicy adjustment and economic growth; Huge amount of subsidies had been successfullydelivered to farmers under strong administration and innovative policy; due to incentiveincompatibility between farmers’ private interests and public benefit, we assume that CCFG onlyachieved second best ecological goals, but a better sustainability. The policy still faces manyuncertainties due to climate change, rural development progress, et al.