Christmas Sales in Retail Trade

Retail sales immediately before Christmas (in December) and exceeding a "normal level" may be termed "Christmas sales". Econometric models were used to adjust the time series on retail sales for changes in tax codes and calendar effects and then to decompose the resulting series into trend, seasonal, and irregular components. The deviations of the adjusted December sales from the trend serve as an estimate of Christmas sales. For 1989, the outlook is for relatively high sales, particularly for textiles, electronics, and furniture.