Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation: Preprint

Over the past several years, there has been considerable development and application of wind forecasting models. The main purpose of these models is to provide grid operators with the best information available so that conventional power generators can be scheduled as efficiently and as cost-effectively as possible. One of the important ancillary services is reserves, which involves scheduling additional capacity to guard against shortfalls. In a recent paper, Strbac and Kirschen[1] proposed a method to allocate the reserve burden to generators. Although Milligan adapted this technique to wind plants[2], neither of these papers accounts for the wind forecast in the reliability calculation. That omission is rectified here. For the system studied in this paper, we found that a reserve allocation scheme using 1-hour forecasts results in a small allocation of system reserve relative to the rated capacity of the wind power plant. This reserve allocation is even smaller when geographically dispersed wind sites are used instead of a large single site.