Commodity markets, economic growth and development

The trend of increasing commodity prices that lasted for about 10 years between 2003 and 2012 has given way to lower global prices. It is now widely believed that prices will remain relatively low in the medium term, as growth in emerging economies has decelerated and, in general, commodity supply has not fully adjusted to weaker demand. These events have renewed global interest in the relationship between commodity prices on the one hand and economic and human development on the other hand, particularly in Commodity-Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs), a group that represents more than two-thirds of all developing countries from all regions. In these countries, the evolution of commodity prices has a direct effect on their economic and human development. This report examines the interactions between commodity prices, economic growth and human development. In line with the 2030 Development Agenda and in order to inform policy makers on the expected effects of commodity prices on socio-economic indicators by 2030, a simulation model is used to project the trajectory of the world economy and commodity prices to 2030. From these analyses, the report draws a number of lessons and proposes policy options to address commodity dependence and its effects on socio-economic development. Several country-level commodity case studies are used to illustrate these effects. This report should be of relevance for discussions about how developments in the global market, and particularly the evolution of commodity markets, help or hinder CDDCs socio-economic development.