Comovement of oil prices with US economic indicators over the business cycle: facts and explanations

Empirical industry-level studies find a systematic pattern of output and price responses to variations in oil prices. This pattern depends on the energy-intensity of production and on the origin of oil price shocks. We build a multisector business cycle model that features endogenous production of oil, multiple sources of oil price movements and intersectoral input-output linkages. The model explains the observed sectoral heterogeneity in output and price responses to oil prices changes, previously emphasized by empirical studies. In addition, we show that accounting for the sectoral linkages helps amplify the predicted effects of oil price changes at the aggregate level.