Contratos de opção: análise do potencial de sustentação de preços para o mercado de arroz

An economic model was developed to analyze the put optioncontract role to stabilize prices in the paddy market. The possibility ofusing Federal Government Acquisitions (AGF) to complement the optioninstrument was considered. The role of the options was to reducethe risks of storing the product for later sale. The model is applied toanalyze the option instrument implementation in the 2004/05 season.A two week demand for rice was estimated for the Brazilian market.The results show that the market prices go up when the government actsthrough the AGF. The options serve the purpose of making prices followa compatible path. It was estimated that the probability for the optionowners exercise their options is greater when the AGF are not used. Onecan conclude that these two tools (AGF and put options) can be used ina complementary way, with the AGF raising the market prices in the harvestingperiod, and the put option contracts making sure that the pricesfollow a competitive path and reduce the risks of future prices.