1 Introduction -- Alternative Approaches to Money Stock Control -- Money Multiplier Forecasting -- Goals and Organization -- Summary of Results and Conclusions -- 2 The Money Multiplier Framework -- Derivation of Pre-1980 Money Multipliers -- Derivation of Post-1980 Money Multipliers -- Inclusion of Non-Bank Travelers Checks in Monetary Aggregates -- The Reserve Components in the Monetary Base Multipliers vs. the Reserve Multipliers -- 3 Initial Forecasting Models for the Old Money Stock Multipliers -- Modeling the Money Multiplier Components -- Estimation -- Model Stability -- Relationship of ARIMA Multiplier Models to Econometric Literature -- Sample Period Errors -- Seasonal Adjustment -- Conclusions -- 4 Evolution and Robustness of the Forecasting Models During a Period of Financial Innovation and Deregulation: 1977–1983 -- Adjustments for the Introduction of Automatic Transfer Accounts (ATS) -- Adjustments of the Forecasting Models for the -- Redefinitions of the Monetary Aggregates -- Reconstruction of the Reserve Adjustment Magnitude -- Inclusion of Non-bank Travelers Checks in the Monetary Aggregates -- NOW Account Shifts -- Impact of All-Savers Certificates and Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs) -- 5 Monetary Control: The Implementation Experience -- Monetary Policy in Retrospect -- Analysis of the Component Ratio Forecast Errors, 1977–1982 -- Analysis of the Component Ratio Forecast Errors, 1982–1985 -- Analysis of Multiplier Forecast Errors -- An Alternative Short-run Targeting Procedure -- Appendix 5A Estimating the Accuracy of an Aggregate Control Procedure for Short-run Targeting of Monetary Aggregates -- 6 The Precision of Monetary Control -- Endogeneity, Exogeneity, and Reentry Rates -- Analysis of Component Errors -- Error Forecasts for Multipliers -- Alternative Specification of the Multiplier -- Conclusions -- Appendix 6A Partial Derivatives of the Monetary Base Multiplier -- 7 Consistent Target Ranges for Several Monetary Aggregates -- Reestimation of Multiplier Component Forecasting Models -- Conclusions -- 8 Conclusions -- References -- Appendix: Computer Programs for Estimation and Forecasting of Multipliers and Component Ratios -- Name Index.
