Credibility Problem for Transit: Response to Millar

The Summer 2005 issue of JAPA contains a letter from the President of the American Public Transportation Association, William Millar, regarding our article “How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation,” printed in the Spring issue. We concluded that transit ridership forecasts are frequently and highly overestimated, including those for projects in the U.S. Millar challenges this conclusion and calls for readers to disregard our “specious article.” We will respond to Millar’s letter point by point.