Cross-Border Factors Behind Social Unrest in Africa : An Analysis of Biofuel Production, Oil Price, Speculations, and the Us Dollar Index

The global energy and food price surges in 2007-2008 precipitated social unrest in many African countries, partly due to the high level of international economic integration that facilitates market shock transmissions between geographically remote regions. Although various potential factors are viewed as the root causes of African riots, such as biofuel production, the global crude oil price, speculation, and the US dollar exchange, no paper scrutinizes these cross-border factors. We analyze the effects of the aforementioned external elements on the occurrence of social disorders in Africa with quasi-Poisson, robust Poisson, and negative binomial regression models. Our primary findings are as follows. (1) US ethanol production leads to a higher likelihood of riots in Africa, while American biodiesel production does not reveal any link with turmoils. (2) The international crude oil price is a stressor for the locals, leading to food protests in Africa. (3) Long and short positions increase and decrease the occurrence of civil conflicts, respectively. (4) The US dollar index can be negatively linked with social disorders. This research contributes to the literature by concentrating on the cross-border causes that have not been thoroughly examined quantitatively and drawing policy implications for climate change, energy, food, and financial markets