Decarbonisation in Europe : modelling economic feasibility and the glidepath for gas

This research models and examines multiple decarbonisation pathways for Europe to 2050, evaluating trade-offs between emissions reductions, costs, and implications for gas demand. Scenarios that front-load decarbonisation to 2040 show prohibitively high marginal abatement costs, while a more gradual linear path reduces costs significantly. Scenarios that do not reach net zero by 2050 achieve substantial emission reductions at lower costs while maintaining a prolonged role for gas. The findings highlight that a diversified strategy incorporating international carbon markets, low-carbon energy imports, and financial support for technological innovation can mitigate the economic burden of stringent domestic emissions reductions. The study also stresses the importance of complementary policies alongside carbon pricing to ensure a cost-effective energy transition.