Deciding Who's Decisive: Municipality Break-Ups and the Behavior of Local Politicians

Swedish municipality parts aiming for secession are highly dependent on the municipal council's acceptance in order to succeed. Only four of the 25 municipality break-up verdicts passed by the central government have not been in line with the municipal council's recommendation. In nearly all cases, the recommendation seems to be based on the stated opinion in local referenda or opinion polls. However, by deciding on whether the whole municipality, or the seceding part alone should be encompassed by the referendum or opinion poll, the municipal council can affect the probability of obtaining the desired result. This paper empirically studies this decision. Two factors show to be important. If secession would result in a large reduction of the municipality's population and a decrease in its per capita tax base, the referendum or opinion poll is more likely to encompass the whole municipality. Such a referendum or opinion poll does, in turn, decrease the probability of a municipal council supporting the case, which reduces the central government's propensity to finally approve secession. <p>