Decisions over decimals : striking the balance between intuition and information

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Prologue: The Certainty Myth -- Quantitative Intuition (QI)™ -- Why Quantitative Intuition™ -- Biases from Working Intuitively -- Biases from Working with Data -- Notes -- Chapter 1 Asking Powerful Questions -- Road to Powerful Questioning -- Precision Questioning -- The Power of Precision Questions -- Building an Inquisitive Team -- Step 1: Start with an Open-Ended Question. -- Step 2: Respond, Don't React. Embrace Silence. -- Step 3: Ask a Stream of Questions. -- The Smartest Person in the Room -- Key Learnings - Chapter 1 -- Chapter 2 Framing the Problem -- IWIK™: A Tool for Reasoning -- The IWIK™ Process -- Ask: Getting the Right People to Think about the Right Questions -- Brainstorm: Optimizing the Discovery of Information -- Capture: Leading IWIK Discussions -- Deliberate: Ordering, Aggregating, and Synthesizing IWIKs -- Framing the Decision -- Key Learnings - Chapter 2 -- Notes -- Chapter 3 Working Backward to Move Forward -- Defining the Problem -- Step 1: Create a Decision Tree -- Step 2: Write the Blueprint of Your Delivery Using IWIKs -- Step 3: Reverse Engineer Your Data and Analysis Map -- Harnessing Inside of-the-Box Thinking -- Taking the Road Less Traveled -- Key Learnings - Chapter 3 -- Notes -- Chapter 4 Learning to Become a Fierce Data Interrogator -- Assessing the Data and Its Reliability -- What Data Was Collected? -- What Data Am I Not Seeing? -- Can I Trust the Data and Analyses? -- Assessing the Data-Key Learning -- Putting the Data in Context -- Pressure Testing Your Analysis -- Key Learnings - Chapter 4 -- Note -- Chapter 5 Developing Intuition forNumbers -- The Power of Approximations -- Learning to Approximate -- Approximating in Practice -- Why Guesstimation Works -- Getting Comfortable with Approximations.