Deep dive on critical raw materials for batteries in the EU

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the battery industry's supply chain in the EU, with a focus on the critical raw materials (CRMs) (1 ) required for Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The risks associated with the concentration of the supply of their raw materials are identified. The report also analyses the bottlenecks in the subsequent stages in the supply chain, from the supply of processed materials to the capacity for manufacturing components and LIB cells. Assuming that the EU successfully achieves its climate neutrality target, the report presents the current and future deployment of batteries for mobility and energy storage up to 2050. Based on this future deployment, two scenarios were developed to estimate the demand for CRMs, namely a 'base case scenario' (i.e. slow adoption of technology) and an 'aggressive innovation scenario'; the latter assumes a higher share of new technologies that utilise raw materials different from those embedded in LIBs (e.g. sodium-ion batteries). The impact of technological innovations on material demand is also assessed and eventually contrasted with the supply of primary raw materials. Circularity strategies have the potential to mitigate the CRM supply risk; a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis of the further development of circular strategies in the EU is presented in the report. Moreover, based on the two battery deployment scenarios, the potential availability of secondary battery materials in 2030 and 2050 is estimated, considering the potential increase in circular strategies, such as extending the lifetime of batteries through repurposing. Complementing this information, the report also includes an estimate of the EU LIB recycling capacity as of December 2024. By providing an in-depth analysis of the battery supply chain, this report aims to inform policy and industry decisions to support the strengthening of a more circular battery supply chain in the EU.