Derogation on the EU Nitrates Directive: does it make a difference?

The paper discusses an ex ante evaluationof the derogation on the Nitrates Directive for Flanders,Belgium, which is a case of intensive but highlyproductive livestock areas. The aim is to develop anaccurate simulation model to detect small differences inmanure surpluses caused by changes of manureproduction and/or utilization. The system of modelsconsists of various modules to fine tune the calculationsof manure production, fertilizing behaviour and manureallocation and disposal on and off farm. The resultsshow that derogation may cause the existing manuresurpluses to expire, if only nitrogen limits are consideredand no transactions costs are taken into account. Whenalso phosphate fertilization limits are considered, theincrease in manuring possibilities is much lower thanexpected. Ongoing research focuses on the marginalshifts in manure surplus at farm level and possibleeffects of transactions costs.