Determinants of the U.S. Wheat Producer Support Price: A Time Series Analysis

Public choice in agriculture is an emerging field in agricultural economic research. The paper's focus is on the determinants of the U.S. wheat producer support price. The econometric time-series analysis suggests that this price is largely determined by the previous price, the expected U.S. share in world exports, and expected program costs. Presidential elections also influence U.S. wheat price policies. All other things being equal, the support price tends to be lower in election years than in other years. This suggests that small interest groups' relative political economic power may be smaller in election years if they do not succeed in positioning themselves on the political economic market such that they contain the potentially decisive voter.