Developing Decision Support System For water Resources Management Under Uncertainty

Water Resource (WR) management problems with a multiperiod feature are associated to mathematical optimization models that handle thousandss of constraints and variables depending on the level of adherence required to reach a significant representation of the system. Moreover these problems are typicallycharacterized by a level of uncertainty about the value of hydrological exogenousinflows and demand patterns. In this paper we present a scenario analysis approach to perform water system planning and management under climatic and hydrological uncertainty. A decision support system (DSS) with a graphical interface allows the user a friendly data-input phase and result analysis. Different generation techniques can be used to set up and analyze a number of scenarios. Uncertainty is modeled by a scenario-tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations of inflows in a wide time-horizon. The aim is to indetify trends and essential features on which to base a robust decision policy.