Developing Evaluation Matrix for Critical Success Factors in Technology Forecasting

The article aims to investigate the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) of technology forecasting. It also attempts to build a consensus from the previous work to develop an evaluation matrix of the same with a view to segregate these factors based on multiple perspective approach. The literature survey reveals that exiguous studies exist pertaining to the CSFs of technology forecasting, that too with a limited focus. Hence, the opportunity and need to write a research article in this domain became rather obvious. The article seeks to understand and identify the success factors of technology forecasting activities and how these factors can be put into practice to help the forecasting process. Some 44 variables contributing towards the technology forecasting success were collected and 16 critical factors were derived out of them, using intuitive judgement based on majority criterion. The analysis revealed that accuracy in forecasting followed by an understanding of the technological change, are the most critical factors in the success of technology forecasting.