Developing a risk management "flight simulator" for manned space programs : a user interface to a system dynamic simulation of system safety at NASA

Simulators are a staple of any engineering project and manned space flight in particular. From pilot and crew training to maintenance and emergency repairs, very little is done without it first being thoroughly practiced and refined during advance simulation. Whether the simulation uses a computerized flight simulator that recreates the physics and experience of flight, or a simple mock-up with paper cutouts and hand tools, the end result is the same: people learn to make. better and safer decisions through advanced simulation and practice. However, there are no simulation tools in use to help NASA managers to understand the dynamics of systemic risk, or how to evaluate the inherent risk within an organization. This thesis describes the development of a risk management simulator that will enable NASA managers to explore the dynamics of risk using an advanced system dynamics simulation of the NASA safety culture prior to the Columbia Shuttle accident. This simulation model was developed by MIT Professor Nancy Leveson and her students as part of a NASA USRA research grant and has over 700 variables and several sub models.