Development of a Strategic Business Decision-Making Environment for Commercial Jet Engine Selection

In today?s business climate, aerospace companiesare more than ever in need of rational methods andtechniques that provide insights as to the beststrategies which may be pursued for increasedprofitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making remainsprevalent due to the absence of analytical methodscapable of capturing and forecasting future needs.Negotiations between airframe and enginemanufacturers could benefit greatly from astructured environment that facilitates efficient,rational, decision-making. Creation of such anenvironment can be developed through a parametricphysics-based, stochastic formulation that usesmeta-models to expedite the process. This paperdescribes such an approach in order to demonstratethe types of insights that might be gained as anengine manufacturer tries to forecast the effects ofuncertainties and future vehicle requirements onengine related characteristics for the design of ahypothetical regional business jet. Game theoryconcepts are suggested as a potential means bywhich one can attach business payoffs to theselection of any engine design point.