Die Rentenreform in der Diskussion Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell für die Altersvorsorge in Deutschland (AVID-PRO)

Earlier this year the results of the study ”old-age security in Germany 1996 (AVID 96)“ have been published. This study describes the future age-income-situation of the currently employed population. An essential element is the estimation of future individual working-biographies. This discussion paper portrays the instrument of this projection, a microsimulation model for the continuation of the working-biographies to analyse the age-income of the 40 to 60 year old currently employed population of the year 1996 in Germany (AVID-PRO). For the purpose of this microsimulation model we first raised longitudinal section and cross section data samples of working-biographies of about 14.000 persons. In a second step we examined these data by means of different regression-processes of developmenttrends between 1992 and 1996. The aim was the microeconometric estimation for the continuation of suitable models. In the centre of the microsimulation based projection we have three sub-models for the variables ”social-incomesituation“, ”income“ and ”working hours per week“. We projected the working-biography of each individual from his age when he was questioned until the age of 65 with the help of microsimulation. Besides these behaviour-equations AVID-PRO contains a vast number of detailed institutional regulations of the different old-age pension-systems. On the basis of the AVID-PRO completed biography-dates the age-incomes of the individuals have been calculated out of the different old-age security-systems and insurance systems. Selected results are presented. We now have a high-performance microsimulation model for the present old-age pension-reform-debate in Germany. This performance microsimulation model is able to analyse alternative policy-proposals for the old-age pension-system on the basis of a wide representative sample with the possibility to ananlyse different distributional and financing policies and policy impacts on the basis of an individual level.