Die zukünftige Ausgestaltung der Direktzahlungen – Eine quantitative Analyse möglicher Reformen in einer erweiterten Europäischen Union

The introduction of the current Common European Agricultural Policy in ten new member states in central and eastern Europe will be a major financial challenge for the European Union. On the basis of the partial equilibrium model ESIM this article analyses potential consequences of different options for a reformed CAP. While the impact on agricultural markets will be relatively small, the financial burden of a harmonisation of agricultural policies and an introduction of direct payments in the new member states has to be carried mainly by the old member states of the EU-15. The burden of the main net-payers, especially Germany, would be significantly lower, if CAP were reformed according to the proposals of the EU-Commission's Mid-term Report. However, the remaining negative impacts on world agricultural trade and on world market prices for agricultural products, clearly show the necessity of a further reform of the CAP.