Diffusion of demand-side low-carbon innovations and socio-technical energy system change

To mitigate climate change in an accelerated time frame, more research is needed to understand how to achieve effective large-scale diffusion of low-carbon innovations. The conceptualization of sectoral socio-technical system transitions requires extending beyond an economic and technological focus, towards a wider system view that combines societal, behavioural, and institutional elements alongside the natural environments and infrastructures. Any socio-technical system reconfiguration will be shaped by the diffusion of multiple innovations. This study employs a novel empirical and quantitative framework that integrates considerations of system actors, behaviours, innovations, and infrastructure simultaneously. Based on a review of socio-technical literature, the framework scores demand-side, low-carbon innovations on a scale from regime reinforcing to disruptive across the dimensions of decarbonization, democratisation and decentralisation. It also scores the innovations according to the policy (economic, regulatory, informational) and legitimacy (actors, discourse) factors that support or inhibit their diffusion. This allows for the investigation of the relationship between the diffusion of innovations and socio-technical energy system change, including whether a relationship exists, its strength, and direction. In analysing 80 innovations that diffused to the demand-side between 1998-2018 in Ontario, Canada, diffusion is found to be negatively correlated with system disruption and decarbonization. Although economic supports tend to be a focus of mainstream policymaking, this study found that economic instruments, legitimacy through discourse, and combined policy and legitimacy supports are important to the systemic diffusion of demand-side low-carbon innovations.