• Abstract
  • Non-technical summary
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 The data
  • 2.1 The data set
  • 2.2 Fixed event and fi xed horizon forecasts
  • 2.3 Descriptive statistics
  • 3 Drivers of disagreement
  • 3.1 A fi rst look at disagreement
  • 3.2 Disagreement over time
  • 3.3 An intermezzo on macroeconomic volatility
  • 3.4 Disagreement and macro variablesv3.5 Disagreement andcentral bank independence
  • 4 Disagreement across countries
  • 4.1 Country-by-country regression analysis
  • 4.2 Cross-variable and cross-country linksbetween disagreement
  • 5 Turbulent expectations
  • 6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Tables and fi gures