Disentangling the economic effects of Brexit and COVID-19 in the UK

We quantify the economic costs in the UK since the Brexit referendum and discern them from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The simultaneous effects of COVID-19 and Brexit are disentangled by evaluating pandemic-related indices relative to economic losses. These losses are measured with a synthetic control method, allowing for a causal interpretation of Brexit. We demonstrate that the UK has suffered exceptionally during the pandemic and that these additional losses are attributed to the long-term economic effects of Brexit.