Distribution of aflatoxin in pistachios. 6. Seller's and buyer's risk.

The seller's risk - - the probability of a set of samples exceeding an agreed upon aflatoxin level when the lot mean does not - - and the buyer's risk - - the probability of a lot exceeding this level when a set of samples do not - - have been computed using a parametrized experimental aflatoxin distribution and Monte Carlo simulation. The calculations are exemplified using the proposed EC standards (three 10 kg samples, 4 ng/g of total aflatoxin, basis kernels only) as well as for samples up to 250 kg and for varied lot aflatoxin levels. It is found that within this sample size range the seller's risk is as high as 42% at 10 kg and increases with increasing sample size to 80% at 250 kg. Only by reducing lot levels to 0.2 ng/g of total aflatoxin, basis kernels, can the risk be brought down to 2.5%, independent of sample size. The buyer's risk is as high as 58% at 10 kg but falls to 11% at 250 kg samples. The implications for both seller and buyer strategies are discussed.