Diverging beliefs on climate change and climate policy in Germany: The role of political orientations

Using longitudinal data from two household surveys in 2017 and 2019, we analyze the determinants of climate skepticism in Germany. We find that nearly 20% of respondents state that they do not believe in climate change and more than 30% are doubtful that climate change is mainly caused by human action. Both percentages have increased over time. Moreover, we detect that political orientation is a crucial determinant for climate skepticism, as respondents inclined to Germany's right-wing populist party AfD are substantially more climate-skeptical and object to climate policies more frequently. One reason for the deviating beliefs may be rooted in the different trust in science, even if we can rule out that the lack of knowledge is a major factor. Consequently, our findings indicate a clear division in society on climate-related issues, one that would widen if the measures taken to combat climate change involved distributional consequences for AfD voters, as they already feel particularly burdened by energy costs.