Do climate change and climate disasters at home shape return migration intentions? Evidence from a survey of West Africans in Germany

This study explores the role of climate conditions in shaping return migration intentions among international migrants. Using original survey data of over 1,000 first-generation migrants from West Africa living in Germany, we correlate observational data on temperature increases in the respondents' home regions in West Africa to their return migration intentions. Moreover, by means of a survey experiment, we investigate how informational cues about climate disasters in the migrants' origin countries might influence their desire to return home. We find that observed climate change in the form of warming does not affect return migration intentions, and neither do informational cues about climate risks that are provided in the survey experiment. Moreover, we find that differences in migrants' socioeconomic status, education or attachment to their home countries do not moderate the influence of climate change and disasters on return intentions. By contrast, in the survey experiment economic factors are found to play a decisive role: migrants are more inclined to return if job prospects in their home country improve, whereas favorable employment in Germany reduces return intentions. This latter finding provides some evidence that economic motivations rather than environmental concerns prominently shape return migration decisions.