How Does Research and Development (R&D) Strategy Shift by Adopting Imaginary Future Generations? - Evidence from Future Design Practice in a Water Engineering Company

Conducting a deliberation experiment involving the employees of a water engineering company, this study examined the effects that the adoption of “imaginary future generations (IFGs),” an innovative approach to overcome intergenerational conflict by generating futurability, had on the design of a vision for business strategy in 2050 and a policy for a research and development (R&D) and technological innovation strategy. After conducting four participatory experiments in groups, analysis was conducted using text mining of speech data recordings of group members’ discussions at multiple sessions. Data from questionnaire surveys administrated to all participants were also analyzed to examine possible changes in their perceptions about criteria for strategizing R&D. The results of the text mining revealed that by making decisions from the perspective of IFGs, the speculative state of future society and business development as of 2050 and the policies for future research and technological development strategies were significantly changed from when envisioning from the perspective of current generations. In addition, the results of the questionnaire survey showed that items of criteria for strategizing R&D, such as “client needs,” “differentiation from industry competitors,” “cost,” and “business models,” which had been emphasized when examined from the current generations’ perspective as important indicators, decreased in importance by adopting the perspective of IFGs. Based on these results, we conclude that the introduction of the concept of IFGs could shift R&D strategy in the industrial sector and potentially induce new directions of technological innovations from the viewpoint of futurability