Domestic Energy Scenarios

This report attempts to organize and evaluate scenarios of markets and technologies that could impact renewable and distributed electricity-generating technologies during the next 20-100 years in the United States. For the purposes of this report, scenarios are defined broadly as any projection or forecast that helps illuminate the potential of Renewable Electric Technologies (RETs) in the United States. Scenarios vary widely in terms of their scope-some focus on supply of fuels or narrow segments of markets with limited timeframes, while others are broader in scope and time span. There are several factors that influence the market penetration of renewable energy and distributed generation technologies. Most notable among these are natural gas prices, technology improvements, and policy measures. Natural gas prices are important because most new generating capacity, as well as marginal generation units, generally are natural-gas fired. Assumptions about the rate of improvement in renewable and distributed generation technologies can also have a significant impact on market penetration. Finally, policy measures that support these technologies, such as tax credits or interconnection standards, can contribute to their accelerated adoption.