Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010

There are a small number of countries that have managed to decrease emissions over the last two decades – most of them emerged from the FSU (former Soviet Union ). CO2 emissions for these countries combined have decreased by 35% between 1990 and 2010, while global emissions increased by 44%. Most studies investigate the FSU as a single block ignoring the significant and persistent diversity among countries in the region. This study is the first providing detailed country by country analyses determining factors for changes in post-Soviet republics by applying a disaggregated version of the commonly used (IPAT) index decomposition analysis including energy intensity, affluence industrialization, energy mix, carbon intensity and population. These factors play different roles during different stages of economic development: during economic growth affluence increases emissions being only partly compensated by decreasing energy intensity; whereas during economic recession emission decrease is mainly driven by decreasing affluence and a declining share of fossil fuels. However, there are large and persistent variations in affluence, industrialization, energy intensity and population change among the analyzed countries. These differences should be taken into account when studying energy consumption and carbon emissions in the FSU.