Drought in the Mediterranean region : January 2024 : GDO analytical report

After the severe and prolonged drought events that impacted northern Africa during the last 6 years, and Europe for over 2 years, drought conditions are again affecting large parts of the Mediterranean region. Long-lasting, above-average temperatures and a sequence of warm spells have exacerbated the effect of the prolonged lack of precipitation, directly impacting soil moisture and vegetation growth, with severe impacts already visible in northern Africa, coastal regions of Spain, and most of the Mediterranean islands. Wildfire danger varies from moderate to high over some coastal regions of Spain, but ranges from very high to extreme over northern Africa. Impacts on water resources have been reported over coastal regions of the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean islands, and northern Africa. Water use restrictions have been announced or are already implemented in Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. At the end January 2024, the snow water equivalent (i.e. the amount of water the snowpack contains) in Italy is far below the historical average, and even lower than the one of the 2022-2023 winter. This will lead to severely reduced snowmelt contribution to river flows in the peri-alpine region during spring and early summer 2024. Seasonal forecasts point to a warmer than average spring 2024, compared with long-term records.