Early Indigenous Extinctions and Modern Deforestation in the Amazon

This paper studies the long-run relationship between historical indigenous presence and modern tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We georeference information on the historical location of indigenous groups, which groups went extinct, and the likely underlying extinction causes. We find that modern deforestation is substantially higher in the proximity of historically extinct indigenous groups, mainly when the probable extinction cause is violent conflict. In contrast, we find no long-term relationship between non-extinct indigenous groups and modern deforestation. These findings remain after conditioning on observable geographic fundamentals or indigenous groups' cultural characteristics, and hold for both accumulated and ongoing deforestation. Historical extinction events are associated with better road access, fewer indigenous reserves, and more private farms, suggesting a mediating link between historical extinction and modern deforestation. We interpret these findings as suggestive evidence that historical indigenous occupation and clashes with settlers influenced the relatively recent deforestation of the Amazon