Early Warnings of Inflation in India

In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one-month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. Standard seasonal adjustment procedures are applied in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of inflation in India. [NIPFP WP No. 54].