ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF BIOTECHNOLOGY: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Over the years agricultural technology has created remarkable commodity production growthrates and enhanced general economic growth through food production, manufactured goods and tradefor most nations. Biotechnology holds the promise of continuing this remarkable record. There is a longlist of potential benefits of biotechnology but unfortunately the perceived costs/risks are also many.These concerns have lead to significant consumer reluctance to accept the technology and, in somecases, outright consumer rejection of the technology. To discuss the future of biotechnology, scenarioanalysis is used to examine the social and economic impact of biotechnology on industrialized andemerging nations. Four scenarios are discussed in detail: biotechnology may be formally or informallybanned (Scenario 1), fully accepted (Scenario 2), marketed through strict labeling (Scenario 3), orlimited to non-food applications (Scenario 4). Consumer acceptance of this technology will be key todetermining which scenario becomes the future for each nation. The likelihood of each scenario isdifferent for each nation, the U.S. will most likely evolve into scenario 2 or 3, while in the EU scenarios1 or 4 are more likely. Determining the future for emerging nations is extremely complex and dependenton several factors like malnutrition rates, environmental safety and historical trading routes. Eachscenario has a major impact on small producers worldwide which ultimately influences the health ofrural communities. The analysis indicates that emerging nations are the most sensitive to the timing ofdecisions being made about the future of biotechnology. If biotechnology becomes a reality, new datawill be required to assess the social and economic impact of this technology.