Effect of Rural Roads on Migration Patterns in India : An Instrumental Variable Approach

This paper examines the impact of PMGSY (hereafter, PMGSY) on pattern of migration in India. Roads are the main means of transport for the people who migrate for better opportunities. The PMGSY was a key step in ensuring all-weather road connectivity to all the villages. The literature has mostly documented the large influx of people from rural areas to urban centres because of fewer employment opportunities. While the rural to urban migration has captured the attention of the researchers, what has not been noted is the role that rural road construction has played in affecting the pattern of migration. Using the data from Census and PMGSY, during 2001 to 2011, we investigate the role PMGSY has played in migration. We first find that the construction of rural roads has led to an overall fall in the migration. Further, we separate the migration into two types, rural to urban migration and rural to rural migration. We note that rural to urban migration has witnessed a significant decline with the building of roads under PMGSY. However, the interesting point to note in our results is the pattern of rural to rural migration. We find a significant increase in the rural to rural migration caused by PMGSY. For robustness, we use a geography-based instrument 2SLS analysis as well. The results are still identical and statistically significant