Effects of a Longer Duration of Lockdown on COVID-19 Related Infected Individuals and Deaths, and on Economic Growth of Countries

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still circulating in 2021 with new mutations and the state of emergency remains in manifold countries. Countries have applied in 2020 nonpharmaceutical interventions to control the diffusion of the novel coronavirus within cities, such as lockdowns that were pursued to safeguard societies and economies, until effective vaccines and therapies are available and wide spread distributed. This study here analyze effects of lockdowns of different duration is some European countries. The policy response of lockdown has in theory the main goal, as containment measure, to reduce the impact of infectious diseases in society, but empirical results here suggest that in the presence of vast pandemics a longer duration of full lockdown has contradictory and not significant effects on reduction of fatality rates but sure it has negative effects on economic systems compared to a shorter length of lockdown. In fact, lockdowns of longer duration have generated negative effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth: contraction of GDP (index 2010=100) from second quarter 2019 to second quarter of 2020 in countries applying a longer period of lockdown (i.e., about two months) is about -21%, whereas it is -13% in countries applying a shorter period of lockdown of about 15 days. In addition, findings here suggest that higher investments in healthcare sector play a vital role to cope with unforeseen pandemics and environmental threats, alleviating negative effects on health of population and mortality in society