ELSA: an electric power supply analysis model for the Pacific Northwest. [Effects of developments]

Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting a program to help assess impacts of energy-related developments through the year 2025 in six northwestern states--Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Alaska. ELSA (Electric Power Supply Analysis Model), one component of this overall program, is a simulation model of the electric supply system in the Pacific Northwest designed to better define future effects of electrical developments. It permits the analyst to examine the structure of the electric utility industry, to postulate possible scenarios and policy decisions, and to test their effect on the cost and availability of power. ELSA is divided into three major sectors: production, regulatory, and construction. The production sector uses the installed generating capacity of five types of facilities (hydroelectric, nuclear, coal-fired, oil-fired, and combustion turbines) and the requirements for electricity to compute the electrical reserve capacity and the system load factor. The regulatory sector uses information from the production sector and a number of exogenous variables such as capital costs, fuel costs, and tax rates to determine the price of electricity as well as other financial variables. The construction sector performs three major functions: (1) forecasts the amount of new construction needed, (2) determines the amount of new construction that can be financed, and (3) decides the types of new generating capacity which should be initiated. Future work with ELSA is described.