Embracing and Shaping Change : Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition

Low investments in human development (HD) are both a cause and a consequence of economic performance and income growth. Thriving populations in knowledge societies are skilled, mobile, healthy, and connected. However, in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, human capital development and utilization has been lagging behind countries at similar income levels elsewhere. The region's current HD outcomes are at risk of decline as MENA countries are facing some critical transitions in the span of just a few decades. This report explores how three megatrends - aging populations, the climate crisis, and technological change - will impact the people of MENA and discusses which HD policies can shape and harness these trends as well as equip people to manage the associated risks. These megatrends are unfolding amid protracted fragility, conflict, and high debt distress in several low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). Poverty remains high in LICs, and income inequality increased more in MENA between 2010 and 2023 than in any other region, which has eroded the middle class. The three megatrends could further exacerbate these challenges by fueling displacement, generating new grievances, and adding to fiscal costs. Fortunately, these megatrends also create new opportunities