An Empirical Assessment of Effectiveness of the Us Tobacco Control Policies : A Smoothed Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression Approach

A sound understanding of the potency of tobacco control policies is key to tobacco prevention. This study exploits a Smoothed Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression estimator to gauge the effectiveness of tobacco control policies while addressing major methodological and data limitations plaguing the previous literature. Specifically, smoke-free indoor air laws and tobacco control expenditures are examined in a single framework, which has the promise of accounting for potential synergies thereof. Further, endogeneity of price (a proxy for tax policy) and other tobacco control policies is addressed through a unique set of instruments while allowing for differential impacts across the conditional distribution of cigarette consumption. The price instruments utilized reflect the supply side of the price determination mechanism, and the policy instruments are based on dynamic state-level measures of political ideology of citizens and political leaders. Finally, our use of the nationally representative individual-level price and consumption data is essential to precise estimation of price elasticities and policy effects