Empirical Investigation of the Determinants of Cashew Exports in Guinea-Bissau

This paper examines the determinants of cashew nut exports in Guinea-Bissau. Based on a hybrid export function with both supply and demand components, we estimate a time series Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model from 1973 to 2020. The main short- and long-run determinants of cashew exports are: local production capacity, credit to the private sector, exports of goods and services, and the unit export price. Three main conclusions emerge from the results. The first is that continued improvement in productive capacity and exports of goods and services positively influence cashew export volumes in both the short and long term. The second would be the negative effect of export unit price on export volumes. Finally, the lag model indicates relatively long run adjustment, which is a good description of the characteristics of cash crops including cashew