Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: HasThere Been A Common Breakdown?

Recent work on U.S. data calls into question the ability of simple Phillips curvemodels to forecast inflation. This paper asks whether there is similar evidence of abreakdown in the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models in other OECD countries.The results suggests that the ability of a Phillips curve to out-forecast simpler modelshas deteriorated in many OECD countries. The evidence is less clear as to whetherthis breakdown can be attributed to structural breaks in the parameters of the Phillipscurve.[...]