Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975

The energy price shock depressed real output by two percent in 1974 and by five percent in 1975, according to our results. Prices rose by four percent in 1974 and by another two percent in 1975. These conclusions are derived from an aggregate model of the U.S. economy with an explicit role of energy in production. The distinction between expected and unexpected shocks is an important part of the model. We also examine monetary and fiscal policies that might have offset the energy shock.