Estimate of the Potential Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton by Farmers in Southern Spain and its Economic Implications

This paper analyses the potential adoption and economic on-farm impact of Bt cotton in the Andalusia region (southern Spain). Survey data have shown that, on average, 58% of the responding farmers know about genetically modified (GM) cotton. Another outcome of the survey is that 95% of the farmers declaring that they know about GM cotton would be willing to grow Bt cotton. In the main cotton-producing districts, farmers' attitudes are positive, and they would be willing to adopt the technology. In areas where the crop is more important, the farmers who are willing to adopt Bt cotton represent over 75% of the area under cotton. As regards the on-farm economic impact resulting from a potential adoption, the assessment is that savings on the cost of direct pest control will be achieved by reducing the number of insecticide treatments. This analysis is applied to a representative Andalusian cotton farm. On the basis of the worst-case scenario derived from a review of the literature on the economic performance of Bt cotton, a reduction of 2.6 insecticide treatments is assumed. For our representative farm this would result in a cost saving of € 148.2 per hectare.