Estimates of indirect land use change from biofuels based on historical data

Indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions from biofuels are commonly estimated with sophisticated economic models of world agriculture. Because these are often complex, the JRC in collaboration with K. Overmars and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has developed an alternative approach based on "historical" data. This approach gives simple and transparent estimates of ILUC emissions in recent years, even if the method is less rigorous in principle than estimates based on sophisticated economic models. The purpose is to understand how much crop expansion (and hence ILUC) would be attributed to 1 megajoule (MJ) biofuel if the crop had been used for that purpose. ILUC emissions calculated with this methodology are broadly in line with results from economic models (both in magnitude and in the relative ILUC impact of biofuels from different crops), showing a lower impact of cereals and sugar crops compared to vegetable oils.