Estimation of Actual and Potential Adoption Rates and Determinants of Improved Rice Variety Among Rice Farmers in Nigeria: The Case of NERICAs

The article used the ATE estimation framework to derive consistent semi-parametric estimators of population adoption rates and their determinants of the NERICA (New Rice for Africa) rice varieties in Nigeria. Empirical evidence shows that the observed sample adoption rate does not consistently estimate the population adoption rate even if the sample is random. NERICA awareness was found to be a major constraint to NERICA adoption in Nigeria. Several socioeconomic/demographic characteristics were found to be important determinants of NERICA awareness and adoption. Among those factors are age, gender, major occupation, year of experience and vocational training. In particular, we have found that the NERICA adoption rate in Nigeria would have been up to 76% in 2008 instead of the actually observed 20% joint exposure and adoption rate, if the whole population were exposed to the NERICAs in 2008 or before. This justifies investing in the dissemination of the NERICA varieties; considering that the 76% is bound to increase significantly in the future as farmers learn more about the characteristics of the NERICAs and become comfortable with their performances.