Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France.

Among several concepts encompassed by the idea of an equilibrium rate of unemployment (labour mismatch, unemployment trend, non inflationary unemployment, structural unemployment), the NAIRU appears as the most interesting one for a central bank since it focuses directly on inflation. Thus, the paper considers the reduced Phillips equation, assuming a stable relationship between inflation and some kind of demand disequilibrium index, as the most promising starting point to estimate an equilibrium rate of unemployment.