EU capabilities in space : scenarios for space security by 2050

Space holds promise for both economic prosperity and the attainment of strategic goals. The EU's future role in space is contingent on fast-changing geopolitical dynamics, which can range from peaceful cooperation to heightened competition or conflict among global powers. Given the importance of this subject, the European Commission has announced plans to propose an EU space act in the second quarter of 2025. This paper aims to describe the geopolitical context of space activities that affect the EU's current and future capabilities, with a specific focus on the use of space for security and defence and the response to space-related risks. Four distinct future scenarios present contextual conditions that may shape the EU's ambitions in space. The scenarios also highlight challenges and opportunities, while considering policy considerations for EU action.