Evaluating the labour-market effects of compulsory military service

We identify the causal effect of compulsory military service on conscripts' subse-quent labour-market outcomes by exploiting the regression-discontinuity design of the military draft in Germany during the 1950s. Unbiased estimates of military ser-vice on lifetime earnings, wages, and employment are obtained by comparing men born before July 1, 1937 (the White Cohort) who were exempted from compulsory military service to men who were born on or shortly after this threshold date and hence faced a positive probability of being drafted. We find that the putative earn-ings advantage and wage premium of those who served in the armed forces vanish when selection effects are taken into account.